Carmelo Anthony wants out of Denver = Denver screwed for the next 3 years

(photo from NBC)
You've heard it already, but

• Carmelo can be a free agent next summer by opting out of the last year of his contract.
  
• He wants to sign an extension NOW, because there is a possibility of an NBA player lock out if things don't go well at the next NBA collective bargaining agreement and he might not be able to get that money after that all of that settles.
• He doesn't want to sign that extension with Denver.
  
• He has given Denver a list of teams he would like to be traded to.
  
• Denver is now taking fielding offers for one of the best players in the NBA right now.

(Photo from Zimbio)
In Chauncey Billups' corner (Denver starting point guard)

• Simply put, this guy is an old guy (about to turn 34 in September).
  
• He's still a top PG but his days are limited and he has recently said he wants to play four more years:
  

“I have hopefully four years left of playing,” Billups said, “and I’m not the kind of person to just ride it out. I want to win. I want to go out on top; I want to go out winning. …I want to get out there, get after it and play. And I want to win as a Nugget the rest of my years. In a perfect world that’s what I would want, that’s what I would hope for.”

Read between these lines - He's not the kind of person to just ride it out on a bad team with no superstar (such as Carmelo Anthony), an aging Kenyon Martin, a shot blocker that jumps at any pump fake Chris Andersen, etc. Even if the Nuggets got some good young players and draft picks in exchange for Carmelo Anthony (which they've come out publicly saying they want), they're not going to compete at a high level to start out.

As of right now, the top two teams who have a chance at Carmelo are the New Jersey Nets and the Los Angeles Clippers. Even if the Nets offer some package including Devin Harris and/or Rookie Derrick Favors, it would take a couple years to still build a team around these players (plus Devin Harris is a starting point guard just like Billups so that wouldn't work/would be a waste of talent). Same goes for the Clippers: if they offer a package including one of Blake Griffin or Eric Gordon, as good as these players are potentially going to be, it's not enough for Billups to stick around. Even if it's not these two teams that finalizes the deal, the Nuggets have said they want young players and draft picks. They are officially in REBUILD mode.

So when Carmelo is dealt, it is inevitable that Chauncey Billups will also request a trade to a contender where he won't have to "ride out" the rest of his career. These are Denver's two BEST players. After that there's an aging/injured Kenyon Martin, a solid center in Nene Hilario, a young point guard Ty Lawson and recently signed scoring forward Al Harrington. This was a GOOD team that had the talent to do big things. They made the Western Conference Finals in 08-09 and lost to the eventual champions the LA Lakers! It's frustrating when franchise players want to switch teams because they like certain cities better than others, but it's not illegal and they can do whatever they want.

The point is, the Nuggets are in rebuild mode. The team is also trying to trade JR "I shoot the effing lights out some games" Smith. And you can't quite build a team around Kenyon Martin, Al Harrington and Nene Hilario...

My BOLD BASELINE PREDICTION is a three team deal that sends Carmelo Anthony to either the Nets or the Clippers in exchange for either Devin Harris or Baron Davis respectively, with Chauncey Billups going to a third team and other players included so salaries match. I'm also predicting that Kenyon Martin gets traded for some young players or draft picks to a team that is trying to shed salary as Martin will be in his last year of his contract that pays him $16.5 million.

Chris Andersen doing his thing...

(Photo from westword)

Laker PG defense is suspect, as if you didn't know already

(Photo from YahooSports)
Well this sure is interesting. The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers have the second best record in the entire NBA. But after tonight's loss against the Mavericks, you have to second guess or at least take with a grain of salt, your pre season pick to repeat as champions or make the finals. Let's go through their significant losses and pick them apart a little bit:

The Losses

10/30/09 - loss to Dallas 94-80
Can you read into it? 2nd game with Ron Artest and no Pau Gasol, I'd give the Lakers a pass on this one but Marion did play good defense on Kobe that game.

11/13/09 - loss to Denver 105-79
Can you read into it? 2nd game of a back-to-back @ Denver, after handling the Suns at home. Still no Pau Gasol. But an 8 point 3rd quarter... unforgivable.

12/12/09 - loss to Utah 102-94
Can you read into it? 2nd game of a back-to-back @ Utah, after a 104-92 win over Minnesota at home. Full strength roster-wise. Just got out played. But they did beat them at home before the Minnesota game. Utah was better.

12/25/09 - loss to Cleveland 87-102
Can you read into it? Plenty of rest. Big stage. Cleveland was simply the better team.

12/28/09 - loss to Phoenix 103-118
Can you read into it? Ron Artest was out with a concussion. They were able to score but they weren't able to stop Phoenix from scoring.

1/12/10 - loss to San Antonio 85-105
Can you read into it? No Pau Gasol. No Kobe for the 4th quarter due to back spasms. That was pretty significant for this game.

1/21/10 loss to Cleveland 87-93
Can you read into it? Another game with plenty of rest. Full strength roster-wise. Tough call near the end of the game that could have been a 4-point swing when Artest was called for a foul that led to Varejao free throws when it could have gone the other way around. Still, Cleveland played great. LeBron played great. No Mo Williams.

2/5/10 loss to Denver 113-126
Can you read into it? Billups goes off with 9 3-pointers and 39 points. Lakers at full strength. Denver was the better team.

2/18/10 loss to Boston 87-86
Can you read into it? They kept it close and had a last second shot to win it, all with no Kobe. But they needed a last second shot from Kobe to win it in Boston a few weeks earlier.

2/24/10 loss to Dallas 96-101
Can you read into it? Full strength. Couldn't stop fouling a good free throw shooting team. Kept it close but took a bad 3 pointer with 25 seconds or so left. Dallas was without Caron Butler.

Records against these teams

Losing to:
Cleveland: 0-2
Denver: 0-2 (2 games remaining)
Tied with:
Dallas: 2-2
Boston: 1-1
San Antonio: 1-1 (2 games remaining)
Beating:
Utah: 2-1 (1 game remaining)
Phoenix: 2-1 (1 game remaining)

What do all of these teams have in common? All of them have PGs that torture the Lakers.
Let's take a look:

The Point Guards

Who they're currently losing to:
Denver's Chauncey Billups: 20/3/6 this season VS. 22.5/3/8 vs Lakers (39/4/8 and 6/2/8)
Cleveland's Mo Williams: 16/3/5 this season VS. 28/6/7 vs Lakers (1 game- 12/25/09)

Who they're currently tied with:
Boston's Rajon Rondo: 14/4/10 this season VS. 17.5/5/11.5 vs Lakers (14/5/11 in win, 21/5/12 in loss - both games could have gone either way)
San Antonio's Tony Parker: 17/2/6 this season VS. 21/2/7 vs Lakers (22/2/6 in win, 20/2/8 in loss)
Dallas' Jason Kidd: 10/5/9 this season VS. 4/5/9 vs Lakers (2/4/11 and 14/7/13 in wins, 0/4/5 and 11/7/11 in losses)

Who they're currently beating:
Utah's Deron Williams: 18/4/10 this season VS. 16/5/10 vs Lakers (21/4/11 in the win against LA, 11/9/10 and 17/2/8 in the losses)

Phoenix's Steve Nash: 17/3/11 this season VS. 14/1/9
(16/3/13 in the win against LA, 12/0/10 and 13/0/5 in the losses)

My conclusion: PG defense is important and a weakness for the Lakers (no I'm not going to act like I discovered Plutonium, everyone should know that PG defense is important). Everyone's ears are probably bleeding about bloggers and sports writers writing about how the Lakes were trying to trade for Kirk Hinrich from the Bulls to get a PG on ball defender to slow down the league's top PGs. Everyone knows Derek Fisher is turning 35 going on 36 in August and can't keep up with the league's top PGs. In fact, Derek Fisher is on the lower end of starting PGs when it comes to defense.

So why does he start? Because the Lakers run a triangle offense that doesn't require a drive and kick type PG and the Lakers have 7 footers to help on defense for guards that beat the Laker guards to the basket. Only these guards are All Star guards who know to pass the ball to whoever those 7 footers leave for a dunk or an open shot (as pictured above!). But are the Lakers back up PGs that much of an upgrade? Farmar who's good at driving to the basket and can make some nice passes and can create his own shot, but his defense needs work. Shannon Brown takes some bad shots on offense but his defense is better than Fisher's and Farmar's, but not by much.

Then again, that's pretty much the only hole the Lakers have (well, that and their hit or miss bench play). It's hard to say that a team with Kobe and Gasol with Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom and past defensive player of the year and all star Ron Artest as your role players, will not make the finals. But Houston with Aaron Brooks and Denver with Chauncey Billups gave the Lakers trouble last year in the playoffs. Could Denver take the next step and dethrone them this year? We'll have to see how the next 2 games vs. Denver play out but you can almost guarantee that Billups is going to have an above average game when he plays the Lakers, as well as any other PG in the league.

(stats from Basketball Reference)