Yeah, the Celtics are the team to beat in the East

(Photo from Boston Herald)
Sorry Heat, you have the star power but the Celtics are having a strong off season gearing up for another trip to the finals. Probably one of my favorite quotes of the summer so far is Rajon Rondo's comments on the Heat's off season moves:

"What is there to be nervous for?" he said. "I'm worried about L.A. That's the team we need to beat. Miami looks really good on paper, and I'm sure they're going to be really good. But they still have to come together as a team. I'm not saying they won't, but who knows if those guys can jell?

"Our biggest opponent each night is ourselves - that's how I look at it. Not to be cocky or anything, but that's how we honestly feel. We are the defending [Eastern] champs. Once the first game of the regular season starts, that's irrelevant. But we are going to go into training camp looking to get back to the Finals and win it."

Rondo's not worried about the Heat, he's worried about the only team that beat his Celtics in the playoffs last year. And honestly, doesn't that just make 100% perfect sense? Celtic management seemed to agree as the Celtics... well, they pretty much got huge. Having to replace an injured Kendrick Perkins, they signed Jermaine O'neal and Shaquille O'neal. They brought in Von Wafer to a one year deal, and they drafted Avery Bradley, a really good pick at pick #22. Along with re-signing Pierce, Ray Allen and Nate Robinson (plus Doc Rivers), this team is built to make a run.

Size and rebounding played a major role in the Finals a few months ago and now with a front line of Jermaine, Shaq, KG, Perkins and Glen Davis, I mean my goodness... that's low key HUGE. You're telling me in a 7 game series, with 2 or 3 of these behemoths clogging the lane, Chris Bosh will take advantage by taking free throw line extended jump shots, Joel Anthony will take advantage by crashing boards (all 6'9" of him) and Zydrunas Ilgauskas will take advantage by taking baseline jump shots?

"But Dwyane Wade and LeBron will carry this team!" Well I don't know if you've seen LeBron James' jump shot you'd second guess your self and Dwyane Wade will be knocked on his ass like he's been his whole career, especially with the Celtics' physical style of play of NO EASY BUCKETS. I also have this strange premonition that LeBron will once again wilt under pressure and take a back seat against the Celtics, hoping Wade will carry the team. But we'll see.

Sidenote: My predicted 1-8 in the East is 1. Heat 2. Magic 3. Bulls 4. Celtics 5. Atlanta 6. Milwaukee 7. Knicks 8. Charlotte (but really it's a toss up for that 7 and 8 spot).

The Celtics, like the Lakers, addressed needs this summer. While they had to retain their core, they also needed length/replacement for Perkins. Jermaine O'Neal signing is huge and here's why:

No, Jermaine is not an all star. Especially in his years at Miami. But let me throw this out there. Jermaine was probably the 2nd best player on Miami behind Wade. Okay, maybe tied for 2nd with Michael Beasley, but he was their #1 post option. On a team with Paul Pierce, KG, Ray Allen and an actual point guard running things in Rondo, I'm predicting a more than average year from Jermaine O'Neal with his super annoying ugly jumpshot that somehow finds its way through the net. Here's a highlight video of him going against Zydrunas in a Heat/Cavs game from the 08-09 season. Again, 2nd best player on that team...

And for a substitution? Bring in Shaq who might not have the explosiveness of 10 years ago, but he is a huge person and can still change shots and like I said, will put people on their asses if they come to the lane. Like he did a few months ago against his new teammate!



Yikes!

Look, the Heat have the star power. They will beat good teams and pummel bad teams. But when it comes to the playoffs where strategy comes into play, where rebounding plays a large role, where other playoff teams are preparing by resting their star players for the REAL season, where injuries come into play and good bench players and depth play a huge part in a team's success, that is where the Celtics will shine. They made the finals, were a few points from winning the championship, they addressed their needs. They can cruise for stretches and rest their core and make a run in the playoffs like they did last year. Laker fans needn't be worried about this super Heat team, they need to worry about the Celtics. Again.

Miami - Public Enemy Number 1?

Could this be possible? Can this three do it? Can Bosh never stop looking like a velociraptor? Could the Miami Heat now be the most hated team in the NBA? More than the Lakers or Celtics?!?!

Think about this: 5 teams were pretending that airplanes in the night skies were shooting stars, and wishing upon them that LeBron would come to their team: Chicago, New York, New Jersey, Los Angeles Clippers, and of course, Cleveland. LeBron chose Miami and fans are upset. Know this--that if LeBron chose Cleveland, no one would resent him and he'd go on to continue his career as one of the best players in the history of the game. The five potential cities for LeBron would be disappointed, but they wouldn't be angry. Every Miami away game at these five cities, he will be booed. The Miami Heat will be booed. Chants will arise including "O-VER-RAT-ED!! CLAP* CLAP* CLAPCLAPCLAP*," COP OUT! CLAP* CLAP* COP OUT! CLAP* CLAP*" and "MVP" chants for their teams' best players at the free throw line and the usual booing and distractions for the big 3 in Miami.

But who else will hate them. Well for sure Toronto will as their franchise player left and it was well known with his twitter updates that he simply couldn't wait for July 1, 2010. The Los Angeles Lakers fans will transfer their Kobe>LeBron hatred toward Cleveland, especially if Derek Fisher (WHAT!?) signs with them.

Sidenote: If Fisher signs and starts for the Miami Heat, Rajon Rondo, John Wall, Raymond Felton, Derrick Rose, and Brandon Jennings are gonna run circles around him in the East (that's about 20 games). Don't get me started on the point guard situation in the West (Nash, CP3, Westbrook, DWill, Tyreke, Baron, Kidd, Brooks, Parker, STEVE BLAKE...) plus relentless booing from Laker and Jazz fans. And if they pay Fisher the reported 10 mil for 2 years, then Miami are the true losers in all of this.

I'd have to feel that the Celtics would hate them as well. The defending eastern conference champions who always seem to be playing with a chip on their shoulder will again be not expected to make it to the finals. The Heat become the automatic favorites. But I can't help feeling that whatever lame point guard situation they have at the start of the season, Rondo will be able to easily pick him apart and continue to take his game to another level.

Along with the addition of Jermaine O'neal, the rebounding swings in the Celtics' favor as well. As old as O'neal is, he's still more of a physical presence than Bosh, and if Bosh finally gets his wish and plays power forward, whatever lame center situation the Heat have, Jermaine can surely overmatch him, especially if it's Joel Anthony.

The Orlando Magic must feel some kind of angst toward their cross state rivals. Again, the Heat will be the favorite to win the East. Magic fans will proclaim that their star didn't need superstar help to make it to the finals and that Dwight was the unquestioned leader of that team. Magic GM Otis Smith has already come out and put LeBron on blast saying he thought James was "more competitive than that."

And pretty much any fan who feels sorry for Cleveland must feel some anger toward the Miami Heat. LeBron disrespected his hometown and is probably never welcome there again. He knew it. He hired security to protect his home when he went on his ESPN LeBronathon. Fans burned their Cavs jerseys and are back to being at the bottom of the eastern standings. I know I feel bad for them. The already watered down league just got a little more watered down. Cleveland and Toronto will both be vying for that #1 draft pick next summer.

A couple notes I've taken away from this:

First of all I'm absolutely shocked.

• As a basketball fan, I'm disappointed. I like to see superstars lead their own teams to see epic battles in the playoffs. Instead of seeing LeBron take on Wade and Bosh, we'll probably see those three take on... Brandon Jennings and Drew Gooden? Joe Johnson and Josh Smith? Gerald Wallace and Tyson Chandler? Not quite must see TV.
  
• As a Laker fan, I'm honestly not worried. I don't thing this big three will make it to the finals (at least this upcoming season) and I think the Celtics are still a better, deeper team with more cutthroat players than LeBron is. Lebron, by joining Wade, proves that he needs a Jordan-esque type player while he plays second fiddle. Absolutely shocked.
  
• As a Kobe fan, I'm ecstatic. Pretty much half of the Kobe haters were wiped out. No longer can people say, Kobe needed Pau and Kobe needed Shaq, LeBron did it all by himself. I'm relishing in all of the comments that writers and bloggers are posting saying Jordan and Kobe would have never joined another superstar.
  
• As an sympathizer, I feel sorry for LeBron. If he wins, everyone will say "He couldn't do it without Wade, and Wade already did it without LeBron." If he loses, everyone will say, he couldn't even do it with Wade and Bosh."
• Also as a Laker and Clipper fan, I like how the west just got a lot easier. Western Conference finalists Suns got weaker by losing Amare. Semi Finalists Jazz got weaker by losing Boozer and Korver. Miami Heat are interested in Portland back up forward/center Juwan Howard.
  
• I like this quote from Bill Simmons' article 12 hours before the hour long ESPN special:
  

  In May, after the Cavs were ousted in the conference semifinals, I wrote that LeBron was facing one of the greatest sports decisions ever: "winning (Chicago), loyalty (Cleveland) or a chance at immortality (New York)."

  I never thought he would pick "HELP!"

• Also from that article, Simmons pointed out that these three will have to play upwards of 40 minutes a night for 100 or so games. If one gets injured for an extended period of time, this team will not make it to the finals.
  

Best LeBron jokes I've heard so far via forwarded texts, facebook statuses and twitter:

• Dear Lebron, You can run to the south.. But your mom is still riding west!
• LeBron James apparently furious about Dan Gilbert's rant. His camp already pitching one-hour special called The Response
• Last time LeBron/Wade/Bosh/Miller paired up they won the Bronze medal in the '04 Olympics... just saying.
• Apple just announced that they're coming out with a Lebron James iphone, but it only vibrates, because it has no ring at all
• Lebron woke up this morning as a young Jordan n is going to sleep tonight as Scottie Pippen

Rafer Alston (Skip to my Lou!) Returns to the Heat - Breakdown of PG position of the Heat this season

(Photo from NBA.com)
The News: Rafer Alston agrees to buyout with the Nets, clears waivers, and is signed by the Heat.

Quick tangent: Whatever happened to And1 anyway? I guess there are only so many ways you can cross someone over while taking 4 to 5 steps and triple dribbling and having neat nicknames like Hot Sauce, The Professor, and Sik Wit It. Plus with the invention of youtube, no one needed to buy the DVDs anymore. But before all that happened, Skip to my Lou/Rafer Alston made it to the NBA. Drafted by the Bucks in 1998 with the 10th pick in the 2nd round. (Photo from tumblr).

Since this isn't a history lesson on Rafer Alston Fast, forward to when he finally got some minutes on the Heat in 2003/04 and played 82 games, starting in 28 of them, helping the Heat in Wade's rookie year make the 2nd round of the playoffs, but lost to Ron Artest and the Indiana Pacers in 6 games.

Three teams and five years later as a starting PG (mainly Houston for 4 seasons with a Finals appearance against the Lakers last year -- only to be benched in favor of a just coming back from injury Jameer Nelson!) and Rafer is back on the Heat, who averages 12.8 points and 5.8 assists as a starter.

What have the Heat been doing this year with their PG situation? Well they signed Carlos Arroyo away from Europe who came off the bench while Mario Chalmers started. This resulted in an 11-11 start after 22 games. Mario Chalmers averaged 9.5 pts and 4 ast while Arroyo averaged 4.7 pts and 1.9 ast off the bench. (Photo from Yahoo).

The Heat's 23rd game against the Raptors, Mario Chalmers came off the bench for the first time in his young career because he was late to the shoot around (Yahoo! Sports). Only he hasn't started since. I doubt he's been late to shoot arounds every game since then. But the Heat went 5-1 with Arroyo starting. With their roles reversed, Arroyo is averaging 5.2 and 3.7 and Chalmers off the bench is averaging 6.4 and 3.6. Nothing too significant with those stats except the Heat were winning including a nice win over the Orlando Magic (Photo from SIKids).

Then they lost three in a row to New Orleans, San Antonio and Charlotte, won against the Hawks, and then lost in OT to the Celtics, making Arroyo's record as a starting PG another .500, 6-6. The Heat are now 17-17 for you math wizards.

So here comes Rafer Alston, free from the New Jersey hell hole, returning to the Heat in what can safely be assumed as a starting PG role for the Heat? Rafer can run and can play better (not amazing) defense than Chalmers and Arroyo against the league's other PGs. If he isn't going to stop the league's top PGs, they'll have a tough time trying to stop him in return. He can run a nice fast break and with Wade alongside him, the Heat have a much more appealing starting backcourt than they've had this season.

We'll have a better idea of what the Heat's plans are with Alston once the terms of the contract are released but for right now, they want to win a little more than 50% of their games and at the moment, they believe that key is in the PG position.

(Stats are from Basketball Reference).

Recent quick hits of the NBA off season you might want to be aware of:

(Photo from lowposts)

Orlando Magic sign Jason Williams out of retirement for one year and $1.3 million. After trading away Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Tony Battie to the Nets for Vince Carter, the Magic were left with their PG position players at the start of last season with all star Jameer Nelson and Anthony Johnson. Between the baseline reason why the Magic felt they needed a playmaker in Jason Williams? Nelson and Johnson were the PGs before Rafer came. But when Nelson went down, Alston helped them get to the finals. Perhaps a playmaking guard off the bench is VITAL to the team's success when Nelson is on the bench. But if Nelson goes down and Williams leads them to the Finals... maybe Stan Van Gundy sticks with what gets him there this time around.

Quentin Richardson traded for the fourth time to the Miami Heat for Mark Blount from Twolves. Q Rich isn’t good. Isn’t going to be the sole reason Wade stays in Miami. With a PER rating of 11.6 and averages of 10.2/4.4/1.6 and 1.7 3ptm (4.6 3ptA), Q Rich isn't the Ying to Wade's Yang. Which is why you read between the baselines. Q Rich is in the last year of his contract and in the Free Agent class of 2010, the Heat will have $9.35 million off of their plate to get Wade some REAL help. Mark Blount is also in the last year of his contract but owed $7.9 million. So with Q Rich, they have more money to get rid of (?) for the FA class of 2010.

And what’s the deal with writers reporting that because two players are good friends, they will automatically be happy and have a good season? This happened two years ago when Kevin Garnett was almost a Laker and one of the selling points was that 3^rd team pg bench warmer Shammond Williams was his cousin. Just because they are cousins, that will be the deal maker? (By the way, KG didn't go to the Lakers even when his COUSIN WAS THERE, who got cut from the team that year, anyway).

Leon Powe signed with Cleveland Cavaliers. Of course he won’t be able to play until after the All Star break. But this is a very nice addition if and only if Powe is able to play at the level he played at during the 2008 Finals. Powe provides energy and skill and can create problems for other teams. But he also has a knee issue. He signed for 2 years for the minimum a 3 year player can get. His reasoning, trying to get his knee back in shape and sign for more money in 2 years. This is probably why the Celtics didn't re-sign him. They’ll probably put a lot of money toward retaining Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins anyway and they'll need the roster space and can't afford (playing wise) to have a player take up roster space to sit on the bench. Cavaliers are thinking they need all the help they can get at a price they can afford for a playoff run to please King James.

The Clippers waived Mark Madsen. And if you read RBTB’s previous post regarding the Clippers, you’ll see that although Madsen is a “good locker room guy” (whatever that means), he was due 2.8 million that came off the books next year. If they could get him off the books sooner, even better for the Clippers. Good for Mark too because I doubt he'd get much playing time (even though he hasn't had decent playing time for almost his entire career) behind Griffin, Camby, Kaman and Deandre Jordan. But these are the fragile fragile big men of the Clippers we're talking about...

Amare Stoudemire is 50/50 about returning to the Suns next year. Can you blame him? The Suns aren’t good anymore. Steve Nash, Amare, Grant Hill and Jason Richardson is not greater than or equal to Steve Nash, Amare, Grant Hill, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell and one of Shawn Marion or Shaq. Amare hasn’t cemented anything about his legacy other than All Star appearances and a rookie of the year award. His future in Phoenix looks dim.

The Atlanta Hawks signed Joe Smith (his 10th team). Terms weren't disclosed but it would be safe to assume it's the league's veteran minimum like Jason Williams of the Magic ($1.3 million/1 year). Joe Smith is ol' reliable and averaged 6.6/4.6 last season for the Thunder and Cavaliers. He'll likely average the same in Atlanta behind Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia.

Those are the facts. And that's a couple ways to read between the [base]lines.