Part 5.5 of 6 Summer Plans - School's Out Fo Summa!

(part 7 will be summer plans for Mavs and Heat, coming soon)

San Antonio Spurs 61-21 (Knocked in first round by a Grizzlies who lost last game of season so they would play Spurs in first round, ouch- but Manu was playing hurt)

Notable Free Agents - Tiago Splitter
Core players still on contract - Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson, George Hill, DeJuan Blair

Recap: The Spurs started the season hot and never cooled off. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and the top teams in the league. Then the playoffs came around and perhaps the age of Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess caught up to them as Zach Randolph torched them offensively and Marc Gasol scorned them with rebounds. Throughout the season though, they got solid contributions from Tim Duncan although he is light years away from his prime. Manu Ginobili played great this season and Tony Parker, besides the playoffs also had a good year. Richard Jefferson did not.

Look for them to: 1. Stay the same. 2. Look for inside presence.

There's not too much the team can do other than try and get younger. The core is pretty set in stone but with Tim Duncan getting a lot older and becoming more and more like David Robinson circa 2002-2004, the team needs to get some inside scoring, something DeJuan Blair does not quite have in his repertoire. But hey, they had the 2nd best record in the league, just got ousted by an up and coming Grizzly 8th seed who had the inside presence the Spurs lacked. But this team will almost look exactly the same. Still waiting on Tiago Splitter...

Oklahoma City Thunder 55-27 (Kendrick Perkins to the rescue! Oh wait, Dallas already took care of the Lakers)

Notable Free Agents - Nazr Mohammed
Core players still on contract - Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha

Recap: Coming off gold medals in the world championships in Turkey, MVP candidate Kevin Durant got this team rolling. Then they really shook things up by trading Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins (and Nate Robinson), to compete with the bigs of the western conference (most notably, champion favorite Lakers and Pau Gasol). Well it didn't quite work out when Dallas took them out and Kendrick couldn't keep up with Dirk. Then again, it seems like no one can keep up with Dirk. In the playoffs, everyone was giving Russell Westbrook a lot of flack for not giving the ball to Kevin Durant enough, how he's a SG playing a PG, how he took too many shots. I guess it's somewhat true, he averaged 17 FG attempts during the season with 7.7 FT attempts. In the playoffs, those numbers jumped to 20 FG attempts and 8.3 FT attempts. Will a rough playoffs require a huge shake up?

Look for them to: 1. Re-Sign Nazr Mohammed. 2. Look for a low post scoring center. 3. Not trade Russell Westbrook.

First things first, Nazr played well and they can sign him for cheap to keep some front court depth available. But the team's big men are not low post scorers. Kendrick Perkins is a defensive center. Serge Ibaka is a defensive power forward with a nice jump shot but no post moves. Nick Collison is a hustle, offensive rebounder power forward, who can play great defense and take charges. Nazr Mohammed is old and is strictly there for, you guessed it, defense off the bench. They drafted Cole Aldrich last year and he is... YES A DEFENSIVE CENTER. Just like many other teams they will be looking for big men this summer in either trades or free agency.

As for Russell Westbrook, the Thunder had better be getting a GREAT point guard if they do decide to trade but I highly doubt they will. This core will be healthy and will start playing together for an entire season next year and the west is severely weak now, and all the good teams are old (Spurs, Mavs, Lakers). The Thunder are young and the team of the future, another year together will serve them well and they'll do just fine.

Chicago Bulls 62-20 (You have no idea how certain I was that the Bulls would beat the Heat in five games)

Notable Free Agents - No one
Core players still on contract - Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng

Recap: MVP, Coach of the year, best record in the league, taken out by the three heat. New coach, Tom Thibodeau took this first round fodder and made them into a defensive stopper team. Derrick Rose upped his game and came up with the MVP award. And the team just rolled through the season and got the top seed! What's not to like?

Look for them to: 1. Sign or trade for a shooting guard. 2. Make another run with this core.

They lost to the Heat because Derrick Rose is the team's engine. Without him on the floor or being involved in a play, the team flounders. He creates his own shot or gets someone else involved in the play. If he's held down, the team will lose. LeBron and Wade guarded Rose and the Bulls couldn't get anything going. If you look at the box scores, Rose would have like 25 shots and near 10 assists making him in that rare company of people who can't be blamed for not shooting enough and can't be blamed for not getting his teammates involved (LeBron, Kobe). But if he can work on his 3 point game, he'll have defenders being honest and not sagging off him on defense, always playing the drive.

As for a shooting guard, Keith Bogans could be upgraded. He's good on defense but not much of an offensive threat. If the Bulls could do anything to improve their lineup, it's the SG position and there have been talks about a possible Richard Hamilton trade with some other team who would end up buying him out, allowing him to sign with the Bulls. Rich get richer.

Playoffs baby, playoffs (part 2)

(Photo from Yahoo)
The second round of the playoffs is over as THE CAVALIERS (as a team) were beaten by the Boston Celtics in 6 games. LeBron James didn't lose the series, the Cavaliers did. Boston was the better team. You know what's crazy though? Somewhere in Boston, some hardcore Celtic fan who was probably screaming "NEW YORK KNICKS!" as LeBron was shooting free throws has possibly the last headband LeBron will ever wear as a Cavalier when he flinged it into the crowd as he was leaving the Boston Garden. EBAY!?!?! How much would that go for? I say thousands.

By the way, doesn't this series kind of prove that the NBA isn't fixed?
Playoff Performance of the Ages: Rondo in game 4. 29 points, 18 rebounds, 13 assists. Game changing plays. Twice he was on a fast break for a layup with LeBron trailing him to do one of his patented volleyball spike blocks against the backboard. Rondo goes up for the layup, LeBron follows, Rondo passes behind his back to a trailing Tony Allen for a dunk.



I'm pretty sure this happened twice but this was the only clip I could find. Either way, it was amazing. He was also hitting his open jump shots for the most part.

But hey, at least LeBron clapped hands with the Celtics. All I know is LeBron is going to enter the world of Kobe. Not the championship world, but the summer of constant questions, media and drama that Kobe faced when he was taken out of the playoffs by the Suns in 2007. Not a happy time for Laker fans, will not be a happy time for Cleveland fans... unless he re-signs.
But here's the thing. LeBron, if he re-signs with the Cavs, will the Cavs be that much better? Look at this: LeBron was $15 million this year. He's going to command 28-30$ million dollars with his new contract he will sign. Shaq's $20 million comes off the books this summer. Everyone else except some third stringers barely making any money at all is on contract for next year. Therefore, if he signs with the Cavs, they'll use Shaq's money to get LeBron that gigantic 30$ million dollar contract.... AND THE TEAM WILL REMAIN THE SAME (except for possibilities of a trade) (no picks in the draft this summer).

So the Cavs will be what we saw this year minus Shaq. They'll have Antawn Jamison for two more years (who should be getting a lot more grief than LeBron right now- DIDN'T SHOW UP), Mo Williams two, maybe 3 more years (player option 3rd year), Anderson Varejao until 2014, Daniel Gibson for 3 more years, Delonte West for another year... you get the picture.

But hey, I'm not going to speculate where he goes. Your guess is as good as mine. But I do know that the places with the most cap space to sign him to that 30ish$ million dollar contract are: New York Knicks, New Jersey Nets, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Clippers, Washington Wizards, Sacaramento Kings, and the Chicago Bulls. Any other team he wants to go to would have to be done through a sign-and-trade so teams wouldn't kill their profits with luxury taxes. So I'm not going to speculate, your guess is as good as mine, and as good as ESPN's... think about that.

In other series that have been over for awhile -

(Photo from Yahoo)
Lakers vs Utah - Well I expected a little more out of Kirilenko's return in game 3, but he played 17 minutes, and then 12 minutes in game 4.

Carlos Boozer put up some decent numbers but he also had some critical turnovers right underneath the basket in crunch time of both games 3 and 4. Either way, he'll get a nice pay day from a team desperate for a change. My guess is the Golden State Warriors.

Ego alert - I was correct in my prediction for the series:

The Lakers will now take on Utah who will be a much easier opponent than the Thunder for the simple question of, who's going to guard Kobe? Rookie, Wesley Matthews? Ronnie Price? Andrei Kirilenko says he hopes to be back by game 3, and he can play defense on Kobe but we'll see what kind of defensive stopper shows up after that calf injury.

And Kobe did have a much better shooting performance than in the first series. Wesley Matthews had some nice plays on Kobe, but ultimately couldn't stop him. In the 6 games against the Thunder, Kobe shot respectively: 31%, 43%, 34%, 50%, 44%, 48%. In four games against the Suns, he shot respectively: 63%, 45%, 54%, 48% all while topping 30 points every game.

Oh and they had no post offensive or defensive game. Pau Gasol dominated as he should have. What's funny is that he won't face a decent post defender for the third straight series against the Suns-- I'm looking for him to put up great numbers again. The Jazz will get Okur back next season, and hopefully they start Millsap in place of Boozer. Oh, they could also win the NBA draft lottery as they have the Knicks' pick, no matter where that pick falls. That would be interesting. By the way, the lottery is on May 18th. Good luck to your team.

Ron Artest's twitter account got into it with Phil Jackson. Phil Jackson, picking his fights wisely brushed it off and didn't start any drama. Ron Artest shot 4-7 from 3 point range the next night. Moving on...

Game 3 Funny Moment, Derek Fisher steals the ball and is on his way to a fast break layup, only CJ Miles swats it out of bounds to make the crowd go crazy. That's not the funny part, listen to Marv Albert:



"OH MILES, WITH THE TAYSHAUN BLOCK!"

Of course he's referring to Tayshaun Prince's block on...



Reggie Miller! Marv Albert's commentating partner! Oh way to remind Reggie Miller of a game saving block in the second round of the 2004 playoffs! Quick history: the Pistons were up by 2 points and with 15 seconds left, Reggie could have tied it, but Tayshaun blocked it away, taking a 2-0 lead to Detroit. Ahhh, Marv.

Regarding Fisher being a traitor to the Utah Jazz - Uhh Jazz fans, do you really think Fisher coming off the bench is going to make you a championship team? At the time, the Jazz were better than the Lakers. This is the summer when the Jazz made the Western Conference Finals, and the Lakers were beat in 5 games to the Suns. Bynum sucked. Kwame Brown was the 3rd option behind Lamar Odom, Fisher was but a light upgrade from Smush Parker. He didn't do it to be on a better team. Fisher cut $8 million dollars to sign with the Lakers. He didn't do it for money. If Fisher was on the Jazz. Jazz fans would complain about Fisher the way LA fans complain about Fisher. The Jazz fans just needed someone to boo.

(Photo from Yahoo)
Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs - I expected MUCH more from the Spurs. I even expected them to beat the Suns! Instead the complete opposite happened and they were swept. Game 4 featured a one eyed Nash still dismantling the Spurs defense... I'm pretty sure the better team won.

Here's something to take note of, the scores for each of the four games: All Suns wins- 111-102, 110-102, 110-96, 107-101. The Suns were consistent. They say they've worked on their defense, but the Spurs averaged 101 points this entire season.

Some questions the Spurs have, what to do with Tony Parker and George Hill? What to do with Richard Jefferson? Both Parker and Jefferson have one more season on contract at $15 and $13.5 million respectively. Those are expiring contracts they could trade away to a team looking for cap space for... 2011? Oh yeah, it was this summer that was the big off season sweepstakes. George Hill was starting quality in the first round against the Mavs. But so is Tony Parker, if he didn't get injured.

One issue they don't have to worry about anymore is Manu Ginobili- he was extended through the 2013 season. But the Spurs know how to draft so I'm sure they'll get some talent next month with the 20th and 49th pick (Tony Parker 28th pick, George Hill 26th pick, Manu 2nd round 28th pick, DeJuan Blair 2nd round 7th pick).

How will the Suns-Lakers series go? I predict a Lakers victory in 6 games. I see the Suns as a better version of the Thunder but with still no post presence. Amare and Nash do pick and rolls for days but I think Gasol, Kobe, Ron and Lamar can move and rotate well enough to at least slow it down a little bit. And again, who will guard Kobe? Jason Richardson and Grant Hill? They'll be better than Wesley Matthews but not better than Durant. I predict another efficient scoring games by both Kobe and Pau Gasol. Let's see if Ron Artest worked on his 3 point shooting during his week off.

(Photo from Yahoo)
Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta was coming off a 7 game series with the Bucks and the Magic had swept the Bobcats a week earlier. Bibby couldn't hang with Jameer Nelson. The Hawks fans booed their team. Atlanta was swept out of the playoffs.

So what's next for the Hawks? Big FA name alert: Joe Johnson. Straight up Free Agent. Not a player option or anything. He decides where he wants to go and for how much. The Hawks have the money to sign him to a max deal and the core group of guys that can get him to the playoffs again, but is it a championship contending team? I think this is a bunch of freakishly athletic guys like Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, and Al Horford who can put up good numbers and play good defense. But in the playoffs, Horford was a bit undersized to handle Dwight Howard. Mike Bibby made 7 field goals for the entire series. The team has no bench besides Jamal Crawford and his behind the back cross over. And they fired their coach!

Atlanta has gone a long way from their terrible years in the early part of 2000s. They have some decisions to make this off season. Unfortunately, their core group of guys aren't as talented as championship contending teams' cores.

Which brings me to the Orlando Magic. 8-0 in the playoffs so far getting a lot of rest. Yes they played playoff teams, but they swept who they were supposed to sweep. Their test is here. The Boston Celtics, who they beat last year (Celtics were without KG). We'll see if Jameer Nelson can keep up with Rondo. I know for sure Rondo can keep up with Jameer. This Orlando team is weird though. They shoot a lot of 3 pointers. Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, Rashard Lewis, Matt Barnes, Mikael Pietrus, JJ Redick can all hit from deep and they can all get hot. But I predict that the Celtics will be able to defend. I also think Perkins, Rasheed and Glen Davis can body up Dwight Howard a little better than Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia.

I honestly don't know who'll win this series but if I had to, I'd go with Orlando, by a hair. They get hot from 3 point line and just put take teams out. Dwight Howard protects the paint and limits any 2nd chance points with his rebounding. Vince Carter seems to be playing high quality basketball right now. But like I said, Boston could just as easily return to the Finals with Rondo playing out of his mind, Ray and Pierce hitting from outside and KG hitting those crazy fade aways. It will be a good series. That's all my thoughts on the second round and predictions for the third round, thanks for reading.

Analyzing the off season moves by the San Antonio Spurs

(Photo from everyjoe)
The San Antonio Spurs did not win the Championship last year, breaking the cycle of winning one every other year (2003, 05, and 07) and the 33-year-old "Big Fundamental," who hasn't missed significant amounts of games since 2005, by the way, but needs one last thrust to win another ring before age, economy, and free agency kicks in to break apart a very good team. Therefore, the Spurs traded Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, and Fabricio Oberto for Richard Jefferson and signed big men Theo Ratliff and Antonio McDyess. Spurs' motto this year is "Go big or go home" (and of course the mainstay, "Go Spurs! Go!").

Facts:

• Richard Jefferson is a 29-year-old SF and averaged 19.6/4.6/2.4, shooting 43.9% and hitting 1.4 3pters for the Milwaukee Bucks last year. He is owed $14.2 million due in 09/10 and $15 mil due in 10/11. Free Agent summer of 2011.
  
• Antonio McDyess is a 35-year-old PF and averaged 9.6/9.8/1.3, shooting 51.1% last year for the Detroit Pistons. He is owed $5.8 million due in 09/10, $6.3 mil in 10/11 and $6.7 mil in 11/12. Free agent summer of 2012.
  
• Theo Ratliff is a 36-year-old C and averaged 1.9/2.8/.2 shooting 53.1% and blocking 1 shot per game last year in 12 minutes per game for 46 games for the Philadelphia 76ers. He was signed to the veteran minimum, owed $1.3 million in 09/10. Free agent summer of 2010.

Read between the baselines:

There's really not much to read between the baselines for the reasons the Bucks made this trade. They have a hefty payroll as of right now with Michael Redd's contract of $17 mil and Andrew Bogut's $10 mil (along with 4 years after that, increasing to $14 mil in 2014). They also have a bad contractin Dan Gadzuric ($14 mil next 2 years). Overall, right now after the trade, there is $67.5 million on the payroll, a lot for a small market team. With Kurt Thomas and Bruce Bowen's expiring contracts combined with the expiring contracts they already have, that number drops to $50 million in 2010/11. (Edit: The Bucks have waived Bruce Bowen) and may also waive Kurt Thomas. They have already traded Oberto to Detroit for Amir Johnson, and then traded Amir Johnson for Roko Ukic and Carlos Delfino but ANYWAY.

There's really not much to read between the baselines for the reasons the Spurs made this trade either. With the strong teams getting stronger (Cavs-Shaq, Magic-Carter, Lakers-Artest, Celtics-Sheed), the Spurs had to keep up and added an athletic scorer who can play above average defense.

What did the Spurs gain by getting Jefferson?

Richard Jefferson is 29 years old going into his 9th NBA season after spending his first 7 season in New Jersey with Jason Kidd and Kenyon Martin. He helped them reach the finals twice, losing to the Lakers and Spurs in 2002 (his rookie year) and 2003 respectively. His best years were in the middle of his Nets years where he averaged around 20 points a game, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal. Richard Jefferson can score, although he probably can't spread the floor that much given his 35% career 3pt shooting. However, last year on the Bucks, he averaged 1.4 3 pters made on 39% 3pt shooting...

What did the Spurs give up to get Jefferson?

• One of their veterans and better defenders in 38-year-old Bruce Bowen, who had a significant drop in playing time last year (from 30 minutes in 08 to 18 minutes in 09), perhaps indicative that he had lost a step in his defensive step, although he's been solid throughout his whole career. After likely being waived by the Bucks, it would be more than likely that he'd re-sign with the Spurs.
• Back up center Fabricio Oberto who only averaged 12 minutes a game in 54 games last year. Played good post defense and was an adequate center off of the bench for the Spurs.
  
• Back up PF Kurt Thomas, who was traded for to help post defense against then-newly accquired Sun Shaq and then-newly accquired Laker Pau. (It worked, by the way, as the Spurs got past the Suns last year in the playoffs, but couldn't get past the Lakers who went on to the Finals). Thomas averaged 4.3/5.1/.8 and shot 50.3%. A good post defender with a nice jump shot from about the free throw line.
  

So these two back ups and sometimes starter defense specialist for Richard Jefferson. They then replaced their two lost bigs with, what else... TWO BIGS.

Antonio McDyess

(Photo from allposters)

Antonio McDyess is an upgrade from Thomas and has the capabilities to get a double double (he sure was close last year). He is the probable starter at PF. Although age may be catching up with him, he won't be asked to do more than provide defense while the stars, Manu, Parker, Jefferson and TD make up the bigger part of the team's contributions.

Theo Ratliff

Theo Ratliff is a shotblocker, plain and simple. He won't score a lot, but he can score on putbacks and block shots if players reach the paint. He will serve well for the price they are paying him. Matt Bonner, who started at center last year, will also be coming off the bench with Ratliff. (Although they could start Bonner at C again this year, and have McDyess be the main backup for Duncan).

2009 Draft Pick: Dejuan Blair

I am, by no means, an expert on the NCAA or their players, besides the big stars, but based on some internet research, Dejuan Blair was unjustly passed by many teams and fell to the Spurs in the second round. The Spurs have a history of drafting very well, even in the second round (where Manu Ginobili was drafted in 1999), and late first round picks (such was Tony Parker in 2001).

Scouts have this to say about 2nd rounder Dejuan Blair:

Consensus: DeJuan Blair was proven to be one of the most dominant players in college this year. However, his lack of athleticism and height are big time negatives in terms of the NBA. Still, undersized power forwards are making a bit of a comeback in the NBA nowadays, so he probably will stick around the League.

We see this a lot in the NBA where good big men in college don't quite do so well in the NBA (Sean May, Roy Hibbert, Greg Oden?) let alone someone who is deemed undersized as is DeJuan Blair. Perhaps the Antonio McDyess and Theo Ratliff signings are insurance signings/give time signings to give Blair some time to work on his game and work around his size. I don't see him making a big impact this year for the Spurs, at least as much as Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess.

Plain and simple, the Spurs boosted their scoring and interior depth. Last year, the Spurs ranked 12th in Off Eff, scoring 106.2 points per 100 possessions and 6th in Def Eff, allowing 102 points per 100 possessions. Richard Jefferson's offense (and for their sake) hopefully a healthy Manu Ginobili (44 games last year) should boost their Off Eff. Antonio McDyess' one on one defense should at least keep the Def Eff around the same number of 100-104 (along with the Spurs' defensive mentality and team identity).

Probable Starting Lineup:

PG: Tony Parker/George Hill
SG: Manu Ginobili/Roger Mason
SF: Richard Jefferson/Michael Finely
PF: Antonio McDyess/Bonner/Ratliff
C: Tim Duncan/Ratliff/McDyess/Bonner

Can this lineup compete with the recharged NBA elite like the Lakers, Cleveland, or the Celtics? Health permitting, yes, but it may not put them over the top. McDyess and Duncan are a somewhat twin tower action that can defend the post with very nicely. But can KG, Pau Gasol, Shaq, and Dwight score on them? Probably, yes.

But this team will compete and have a deep playoff run and could challenge for the western conference championship. In a weakened division with the Rockets without Yao and McGrady, and the Grizzlies who are not a good basketball team, this team should get a lot of wins and have a high seed in the West. Don't sleep on McDyess, he's not only a good defender, but can hit a midrange jumpshot (better than Kurt Thomas could) if teams collapse on Duncan. And along with Richard Jefferson, this team's offense should only improve (and be a little more exciting).

Those are the facts, and that's one way to read between the [base]lines.

Here's Richard Jefferson dunking on his new teammates.